The monthly emissions from each power plant in Greece are estimated based on the latest available electricity production data (July 2024 for the interconnected network and June 2024 for the non-interconnected islands) and the annual CO2 emissions from ETS (2023), following the methodology and assumptions presented here.
Carbon intensity of electricity production
Carbon intensity[1] is an important indicator of the decarbonization of the power sector. Low carbon intensity means a cleaner electricity production mix, decarbonized from the polluting fossil fuels.
The progress that has already been made can be seen from the large reduction in carbon intensity over the last decade. From 2013 – the year when the third phase of the ETS began, phasing out free carbon emission allowances for electricity production – until 2019, carbon intensity fluctuated above 500 g CO2/kWh. The highest annual average carbon intensity in the last decade was recorded in 2014 (875 g CO2/kWh).
However, 10 years later, carbon intensity is almost 3 times lower (315 g CO2/kWh), thanks to the great 80.6% reduction in lignite production between 2013 and 2023.
Progress continues into 2024, as during the first seven months of the year the average carbon intensity fell further to 267 g CO2/kWh. However, in July carbon intensity rose to 283 g CO2/kWh, an increase compared to the previous three months (April-June), due to the increased use of fossil fuels in electricity production, mainly fossil gas.
Emissions in 2024 could have been reduced even further if RES curtailments had been avoided and the corresponding quantity of energy was allocated to limit the production of gas plants. A total of 528 GWh had been curtailed by July (49 in March, 259 in April, 122 in May, 64 in June and 33 in July). Taking into account the carbon intensity of the first seven months of the year, 129 thousand tons CO2 less could have been emitted, which is approximately the same amount as the emissions of the Meliti I lignite power plant during that period.
Emissions per fuel
In July, emissions from power plants approached 2 million tons (1.8 million tons). They were the highest since August 2022 (2.48 million tons). In total, in the first seven months of 2024 an estimated 8.61 million tons of CO2 were emitted for electricity production.
Emissions from fossil gas plants reached almost 50% of the country’s total (4.4 million tons or 51.1%) and exceeded those from lignite plants (2.55 million tons or 29.6%). The share of oil plants was much smaller (1.66 million tons or 19.3%).
Emissions from the electricity production sector decreased only by 0.26 million tons (or -2.9%) in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. The small decrease is mainly due to the increase in the use of fossil gas which outweighed the decrease in emissions from the reduction of lignite. Emissions from fossil gas plants increased by 0.96 million tons (or +27.9%), due to a corresponding 33.5% increase in fossil gas electricity production during the first seven months of 2024. In contrast, emissions from lignite plants decreased (-1.32 million tons or -34.2%) because of a 31% reduction in electricity production from lignite plants. Finally, emissions from oil plants increased slightly compared to the first seven months of 2023 (+0.11 million tonnes or +6.8%).
Compared to the five-year average, total emissions in the first seven months of 2024 decreased by 3.2 million tons (-27.1%). The decrease came from all three fuels, with the largest being from lignite (-3.43 million tons or -57.4%). It is noteworthy that at the beginning of the five-year period (2019), emissions from lignite plants (10.63 million tons) were more than four times higher compared to the first seven months of 2024. Oil also marked a smaller decrease (-0.05 million tons or -8.9%), while fossil gas recorded a small increase for the first time (+0.28 million tons or 6.8%).
Emissions per thermal power plant
In terms of the distribution of emissions among power plants, the lignite power plant of Agios Dimitrios retained the 1st place in the first seven months of 2024, emitting 1.67 million tons of CO2 (65.6% of the total lignite emissions). In the first five months of 2024, three of its five units (III-V) – those covering the district heating of the city of Kozani – operated. In June only unit III operated with low production (19.3 GWh), while in July all five units of the plant operated (137.7 GWh).
Ptolemaida 5 was second with 0.73 million tons, while at the half-year it was in third place, mainly due to its increased production in July, when it recorded the highest monthly production of the year (216.4 GWh). The third lignite power plant, Meliti, was 19th with 0.13 million tons, while the fourth lignite plant still available, Megalopoli IV, has practically not operated at all in 2024.
The fossil gas plant Agios Nikolaos II was third (0.72 million tons), while Lavrio IV-V was fourth (0.57 million tons). Fossil gas-fired plants in total accounted for more than 60% (63.3%) of the emissions from thermal plants in the country’s interconnected grid (lignite and fossil gas together).
In the non-interconnected islands, the three oil stations located in Crete (Aterinolakkos, Linoperamata and Chania) were the top polluters with emissions of 0.38, 0.29 and 0.15 million tons respectively in the first six months of 2024. Cumulatively, the top three polluting oil stations represent 50% of the total emissions in the non-interconnected islands. They are 8th, 13th and 16th respectively in the general ranking of emissions by all thermal power plants in the country.
Emissions from PPC ‘s thermal power plants
PPC has made great progress in the last two years in terms of reducing CO2 emissions from its thermal plants. Ιn 2022 it succeeded in reducing emissions to 14.94 million tons, 35% less than the corresponding levels of 2019 (23.09 million tons), while in 2023 the reduction compared to the same base year exceeded 50% (-50.3%), as all of PPC’s thermal plants are estimated to have emitted 11.47 million tons[2].
PPC seems to remain committed to drastically reducing its carbon footprint. Specifically, in its strategic business plan for the 2024 – 2026 period, presented in January 2024 at the Capital Markets Day in London, it committed to reducing emissions from its thermal plants to 5.9 million tons in 2026, a reduction of 75% compared to 2019 levels.
Assuming that the reduction in emissions from 11.47 million tons in 2023 to 5.9 million tons in 2026 is linear, an estimate of PPC’s annual carbon budgets for each year of the three-year period 2024-2026 can be made. The available budget for 2024 is estimated at 9.61 million tons.
In the first six months of the year, PPC’s thermal plants emitted 5.78 million tons, a 14.4% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. This reduction is almost five times the corresponding percentage reduction recorded in the emissions of all thermal plants in the country (-2.9%). Therefore, PPC’s carbon budget for the remaining five months of 2024 is 3.83 million tonnes, that is 39.9% of the total coal budget for the year. Based on the seven-month climate performance, PPC is marginally off track to meet its target[3].
You can see the evolution of the electricity sector emissions since 2013, as well as read the analyses from previous months here.
[1] Carbon intensity is defined as the ratio of emissions from the three fuels (lignite, gas and oil, including CHP) to Greece’s total electricity production from the interconnected grid and the non-interconnected islands.
[2] This value includes the emissions of all PPC thermal units recorded in the ETS in 2023 (9.73 million tons) and an estimate of the emissions from Ptolemaida 5 (1,735 million tons) that will be officially recorded in the ETS in the following years.
[3] It is noted that emissions, as well as the electricity production of non- interconnected islands for the months of 2024 which have not yet been published, are estimated on the basis of previous years’ data.
