Trends in fossil gas consumption & imports – August 2024

August recorded the second highest Russian gas imports in Greece ever (3.64 TWh), just one month after the historic high of July (3.69 TWh). In addition, it was the first month that gas use was recorded at the new power plant “Thermoelektriki Komotinis” (only 587 kWh). Gas consumption in the first eight months of 2024 (42.78 TWh) increased by 27.2% compared to the same period in 2023, mainly due to the increase of gas in electricity production (+6.38 TWh).

The month of August

According to the latest available data from DESFA, gas use was recorded for the first time in August 2024 at the new 877 MW power plant “Thermoelektriki Komotinis”, with very low consumption (587 kWh).

Total domestic gas consumption for August was below 6 TWh (5.75 TWh) where it had climbed in July. It was the second highest in six years (2019-2024) for the month of August after 2021 (6.31 TWh). The largest increase in absolute terms, compared to August last year, came from electricity (+0.9 TWh or +25.1%). Industry followed with a smaller increase (+0.2 TWh or +39.7%) and then gas use in networks, which increased marginally by 0.01 TWh (+3%).

Cumulative performance in the first eight months of 2024

Cumulatively, gas consumption was 42.78 TWh in the first eight months of 2024, marking an increase compared to the five-year average of 2.62 TWh (+6.5%). The increase was even larger compared to the first eight months of 2023 (+9.15 TWh or +27.2%).

As far as end uses are concerned, the largest increase compared to the five-year average was recorded in industry (+26% or +1.22 TWh), followed by electricity (+8% ή +2.18 TWh). In contrast, there was a decrease in networks (-9.5% or -0.78 TWh).

Similarly, when comparing the first eight months of 2024 with the same period in 2023, the largest percentage increase was in industry (+103.3% or +3 TWh), followed by electricity (+27.7% or +6.38 TWh). In contrast, there was a decrease in distribution networks (-2.9% or -0.22 TWh).

Consumption in 2024

Gas consumption in August 2024 (5.75 TWh), decreased by 7.8% compared to the previous month, i.e. July 2024, but increased by 24.7% compared to August 2023 (4.61 TWh). In all months of 2024 so far, gas consumption has increased compared to the corresponding months of 2023.

Looking at the breakdown of gas consumption by end use in the first eight months of 2024, electricity had the largest share with 29.4 TWh (or 68.8%), an amount almost equal to the first eight months of 2023 (68.6%).

The share of distribution networks decreased from 22.8% (or 7.67 TWh) in the first eight months of 2023 to 17.4% (or 7.45 TWh). This redistribution was the result of a large increase in the share of industry which rose by almost 5 percentage points – from 8.6% (or 2.9 TWh) in the first eight months of 2023 to 13.8% (or 5.9 TWh) in the same period of 2024.

The voluntary European target of -15%

In March 2024, the European Union issued a recommendation for Member States to continue their efforts in reducing gas consumption by 15% for the period April 2024 to March 2025, compared to the reference period from 1 April 2017 to 31 March 2022. This recommendation follows the mandatory directive in August 2022 to reduce gas consumption by 15% in the eight-month period of August 2022-March 2023 compared to a baseline period, as well as the decision in March 2023 to voluntarily reduce consumption between April 2023 and March 2024.

Therefore, considering Greece’s performance so far, it appears that for the first five months of the new voluntary reduction period, that is April-August 2024, the country did not decrease its gas consumption compared to the reference period, but instead increased it. In particular, consumption (26.57 TWh) was 7.52 TWh higher than the target (19.05 TWh), while it exceeded the average of the reference period (22.42 TWh) by 4.15 TWh.

Comparison with the European Union for the voluntary European target of -15%

Based on the latest available Eurostat data[1] on monthly gas consumption in the EU-27 Member States (July 2024), for the first three months of the new voluntary reduction period (April-July 2024), Greece increased its consumption by 19.6% compared to the reference period[2] of the voluntary reduction target. This performance places Greece last compared to the rest of the EU. It is actually one of the two countries that have increased their gas consumption; the other one is Slovenia (+4.9%). The EU-27 came 15th (-18.9%) in the ranking, meeting its voluntary gas consumption reduction target (-15%).

This is an alarming deterioration of the national performance as opposed to the mandatory target imposed by the EU at the peak of the energy crisis to reduce fossil gas consumption by at least 15% in the eight-month period between August 2022-March 2023 compared to the average of the previous five-year period. Specifically, Greece had achieved then a 21.9% reduction and was in 10th place, surpassing both the European average (16th place) and countries such as Germany, Austria or Italy.

Imports in 2024

Russian pipeline gas imports in August 2024 (3.64 TWh) were the second highest ever after the previous month (3.66 TWh in July 2024). As a result, the monthly share of imports from Turkstream exceeded 60% (64.4%), ranking Russian gas as far as import sources are concerned.

Azeri gas from TAP via Nea Mesimvria was second in August 2024, with a 17.9% share (1.01 TWh), registering an increase of +155% compared to August 2023 (0.4 TWh).

The monthly flow of LNG from the Agia Triada is third with 17.8%, marginally behind Azeri gas. However, LNG flows from Agia Triada were halved in August 2024 (1 TWh) compared to the same month in 2023 (2.41 TWh).

Imports from the fourth entry gate, Kipoi in Turkey, were zero for the eighth consecutive month, i.e. since the beginning of the year.

Apart from the Agia Triada gate, since the last days of February, imports of LNG have been carried out from the new FSRU station in Alexandroupoli, which has not yet been put into commercial operation. From this gateway, based on the data published so far, 0.28 TWh of LNG have been imported[3].

Cumulatively, for the first eight months of 2024, total imports from Greece’s entry points were 42.7 TWh, up 16.7% compared to the same period of 2023. Imports through the Sidirokastro gate are now consistently the first source of supply in Greece, with 22.8 TWh and a share close to 55% (53.4%). The corresponding share in the first eight months of 2023 was only 16.8%.

LNG imports via the Agia Triada gateway were second with 11.4 TWh and a share of 26.7%, marking a large decrease (-51.6%) compared to the first eight months of 2023. Azeri gas imports through TAP remained in third place with 8.2 TWh and a share of 19.2%, up 51.3% compared to the first eight months of 2023.

Finally, there were zero gas exports through the Sidirokastro gate for the 12th consecutive month (since September 2023).

Russian gas imports to Greece

As far as fossil gas from Russia is concerned, there are two entry points: one from Sidirokastro through the Turkstream pipeline and a second one in the form of liquefied fossil gas (LNG) from the Agia Triada gateway.

The energy crisis, intensified by the war in Ukraine, resulted in a significant reduction in Russian gas imports from Turkstream as early as April 2022. This was reflected in the 86.2% reduction of Russian gas from this pipeline during the period of the mandatory reduction target (August 2022-March 2023) compared to the same period of the previous year.

Russian gas in the form of LNG was first imported to Greece in October 2022, a few months after Russia’s war in Ukraine began. Until mid-2023, the first source of imports into the country was LNG (excluding Russian LNG) from the Agia Triada gate.

June 2023 was the first month when Russian gas (from pipeline and LNG) became the first source of imports with a 46% share, followed by LNG from all other countries except Russia (37% share). In fact, this trend continued for all other months of 2023 until August 2024[4].

Specifically, in the first eight months of 2024, Russian gas exceeded 55% of Greece’s total gas imports (at least 57.9%[5]). This high share is mainly due to the imports of Russian gas through pipeline, as Russian LNG imports were reduced in the first two months of 2024 and dropped to zero in the next months (March – July).

It is noteworthy that in the period June 2023 – August 2024, total Russian gas imports were at least 44.2 TWh, 85% more than the corresponding period before and during the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine (23.9 TWh between June 2021 and August 2022). Therefore, Russian gas imports not only increased, but also exceeded the levels of the energy crisis. An important role in this was initially played by the increase in Russian LNG imports, but mainly by Russian gas imports via Turkstream (Sidirokastro gateway). Russian pipeline gas has shown a significant increase especially in the last eight months, taking the lead in terms of share of total imports.

Read here the analyses of the previous months since the start of the EU reduction measures in August 2022.

[1] Some of the Eurostat data, especially for the last few months, are provisional and will be finalized in the coming months. Cyprus has not been included in the comparison as it has zero gas consumption.

[2] This period is the average of the April-July intervals from 2017 to 2022.

[3] LNG imports from the entry gate at Amfitriti, where the Alexandroupolis FSRU is located, do not appear every month in DESFA’s monthly reports.

[4] For August there is no data in Eurostat for Russian LNG.

[5] Actual imports are likely higher, as they do not include potential imports of Russian LNG in August 2024.