Emissions from electricity production rose in March 2026 to 1.28 million tons (+17% compared to February), with the carbon intensity standing at 222 g CO2/kWh (+10.6%) due to increased use of all three fossil fuels. For the first quarter of 2026, cumulative emissions were 3.96 million tons, down compared to 2025 (-24.7%) but higher than those of 2023 and 2024. There was a significant drop in emissions from oil (-44.7%) due to reduced production at thermal power plants in Crete.
Monthly emissions from each power plant in Greece (that is subject to ETS reporting) are estimated based on the latest available electricity production data (March 2026 for the interconnected network and for non-interconnected islands) and the annual CO2 emissions from ETS (2025), following the methodology and assumptions presented here.
Carbon intensity of electricity production
In March 2026, the carbon intensity of electricity production stood at 222 g CO2/kWh, up 10.6% from February, due to increased electricity generation from all three fossil fuels, which led to higher emissions.
For the first quarter of 2026, the average carbon intensity was 225.8 g CO2/kWh, an improvement of 6.3% compared to the average carbon intensity of 2025.
Based on IPTO’s ISP2 and ISP3 forecasts, RES curtailments in March are estimated at 196 GWh. Thus, for the first quarter of 2026, RES curtailments totaled 410 GWh, or 5.3% of total RES generation. If this curtailed energy had been used to reduce electricity generation from gas and lignite, the average carbon intensity would have been 208 g CO2/kWh, 8% lower than the actual figure.
Emissions per fuel
In March 2026, CO2 emissions from power plants using fossil fuels reached 1.28 million tons, up 17.2% from February and the second highest of the year so far after January. They were also 0.24 million tons, or 22.8%, higher than emissions in March of last year.
Cumulatively for the first quarter of the year, emissions in 2026 reached 3.96 million tons, down 24.7% compared to the same period in 2025 but up compared to the corresponding emissions in 2023 and 2024 (3.92 million tons and 3.69 million tons, respectively).
Emissions from fossil gas-fired plants were 2.22 million tons, down 11.6% compared to the same period in 2025, yet higher than emissions in 2023 and 2024 (1.21 million tons and 1.6 million tons, respectively).
Emissions from lignite-fired power plants for the first quarter of 2026 reached 1. 33 million tons, down 15.5% compared to the same period last year and the lowest emissions from lignite-fired power plants for the first quarter of the year.
Finally, oil-fired power plants on non-interconnected islands emitted 0.3 million tons in the first three months, a 44.7% decrease compared to 2025, mainly due to Crete, where electricity generation from oil-fired power plants fell by 91% compared to the first quarter of 2025 due to the new interconnection.
As for the share of each fossil fuel in total emissions for the first quarter of 2026, fossil gas was once again the leading source, accounting for 56.1%, followed by lignite at 33.6%, and finally oil at 7.7%.
Emissions per thermal power plant
In terms of the breakdown of emissions by power plant, the lignite power plant of Agios Dimitrios, which supplies district heating to Kozani, remains the top polluter for the first quarter of 2026, with emissions of 1.2 million tons, accounting for 30.5% of the sector’s total emissions. In March, two of the three units of the plant that remain open (III and V) were in operation, with a total output of 244.3 GWh, while the plant’s cumulative output for the quarter was 752.3 GWh.
In second place was Agios Nikolaos II, which operates on fossil gas and had emissions of 0.42 million tons, and Megalopolis V ranked third with emissions of 0.33 million tons. Rounding out the top five polluters for the first quarter of 2026 were Thermoilektriki Komotinis (0.25 million tons) and Lavrio IV-V (0.18 million tons).
On the non-interconnected islands, for the first time, the power plants on Crete were not among the top polluters. Instead, the five largest polluters for the first quarter of 2026 were the two power plants on Rhodes, the power plant on Lesbos, and those on Thira and Kos. Specifically, the Rhodes power plant emitted 0.05 million tons, the South Rhodes station 0.037 million tons, the Lesbos station 0.04 million tons, the Thira station 0.032 million tons, and finally the Kos station 0.031 million tons.
Sectoral emissions – comparison with NECP
In the final revised National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) submitted to the European Commission in December 2024, emissions from the sector for 2025 should not have exceeded 10.2 million tons, while for 2030 they should not exceed 4 million tons. Assuming a linear reduction in emissions between 2025 and 2030, it follows that the carbon budget for the power sector for 2026 should not exceed 9 million tons.
So far in the first quarter of 2026, the sector is estimated to have emitted 3.96 million tons, or 44% of the annual carbon budget for the year. This leaves only 5 million tons for the remaining ¾ of the year for the country to meet its NECP commitments.
You can explore how electricity sector emissions evolved since 2013, as well as find analyses from previous months here.
