Against the backdrop of the debate over the Vertical Corridor and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Athens, Nikos Mantzaris, Head of Policy Analysis and co-founder of The Green Tank, spoke to Stavros Apostolidis on Status Radio 94.2 on the need for new LNG infrastructure in Greece and the outlook for fossil gas demand in the nine countries of the Vertical Corridor.
At the beginning of the interview, he highlighted the conclusion of the recent Green Tank analysis that, even under a scenario of very high gas use in the Vertical Corridor countries, only one of the four new LNG terminals that have been announced would be sufficient to cover the replacement of Russian gas in the Vertical Corridor countries through 2040. By contrast, under the faster gas phase-out scenario, which he described as the more realistic one, no new terminal would be needed, as even the second terminal currently operating in Alexandroupolis would be underutilised from 2035 onwards.
Nikos Mantzaris stressed that these estimates are based on the assumption that all the Russian gas needs of the Vertical Corridor countries would be met exclusively through Greece. However, he explained that this assumption is not particularly realistic, as alternative routes via Croatia, Poland and Germany can supply the same Vertical Corridor countries at a lower transmission cost than the route through Greece, making them more competitive. Consequently, the volumes of LNG originating from Greek terminals and supplying the needs of Vertical Corridor countries could be even lower than those projected in the scenarios examined in the analysis.
Nikos Mantzaris warned of the risks of over-investment in fossil gas infrastructure. Infrastructure that ultimately proves unnecessary can impose additional costs on consumers through network and transmission charges. At the same time, fossil gas infrastructure also carries a significant climate cost, given the emissions associated with the extraction, transportation and combustion of fossil gas. As he noted, the fact that investments in gas infrastructure may be profitable does not necessarily mean that they serve the public interest, when their costs are ultimately passed on to consumers or when they further exacerbate the escalating climate crisis, which in recent years has contributed to mega-wildfires such as those in Dadia, Evros, with incalculable damage.
Finally, he stressed that strengthening Greece’s geopolitical position cannot be equated exclusively with new fossil fuel infrastructure. Sustainable investments in renewable energy and storage can strengthen energy security, reduce electricity costs for Greece and its neighbouring countries, and thereby enhance the country’s geopolitical position. He cited Bulgaria as an example, noting that it has been moving in precisely this direction in recent years through the rapid deployment of batteries, which are having a positive impact on electricity prices not only in Bulgaria but also in neighbouring countries.
Listen to the full interview [in Greek], broadcast on 7 October 2026, here and on our YouTube channel, here.
Read The Green Tank’s analysis, “Vertical Corridor: Gas Demand and Economic Viability”.
