This analysis by The Green Tank calculates the first sectoral carbon budgets based on the NECP projections and shows that in the five-year period 2026-2030 Greece will burden the atmosphere with 257 million tons CO2eq, reducing its emissions by 145 million tons (-36%) compared to the period 2018-2022. The contribution of electricity and heat production, as well as industry, in reducing emissions is significant. However, the transport sector is expected to regress.
According to its National Climate Law, by the end of 2024 Greece must prepare carbon budgets for the following seven sectors of the economy: 1) electricity & heat production, 2) transport, 3) industry, 4) buildings, 5) agriculture and livestock, 6) waste and land use activities, 7) land use, land use change & forestry (LULUCF). Reinforcing the country’s climate policy, the carbon budgets will set the maximum amounts of GHG emissions that these sectors are allowed to emit in the five-year period 2026-2030.
In order to contribute to the public debate foreseen by the national Climate Law, the analysis entitled “Sectoral carbon budgets and the NECP: The national climate policy under the spotlight” develops and applies a methodology for calculating the seven sectoral carbon budgets for the period 2026-2030. The analysis is based on the projections of the latest publicly available version of the NECP submitted for public consultation in August 2024.
The key findings of the analysis are summarized as follows:
- Cumulatively, over the five-year period 2026-2030, Greece will emit 257 million tons CO2eq; this figure represents a 145 million tons reduction (-36%) compared to the 2018 2022 period, which is the last five-year period for which official data are available.
- 83% of this reduction will come from electricity & heat production (-90 Mt CO2eq) and industry (-31 Mt CO2eq), the two most polluting sectors during the 2018-2022 period.
- The buildings sector will contribute at a lesser degree to this reduction with -11.7 Mt CO2eq. Even smaller contributions will be made by the agriculture-livestock sector (-7.5 Mt CO2eq) and LULUCF (-6.3 Mt CO2eq), while the progress in the waste management sector will be negligible (-1.1 Mt CO2eq).
- In contrast, emissions from the transport sector are expected to increase (+3.1 Mt CO2eq) to 105 Mt CO2eq over the five-year period 2026-2030; accounting for nearly 41% of the country’s total carbon budget for 2026-2030, transport will, thus, become Greece’s most polluting sector.
“Transport is emerging as the ‘elephant in the room’ of Greece’s climate policy. It is necessary to redesign the relevant measures and policies of the NECP following the example of countries such as Spain and Portugal, which have set a much higher bar of climate ambition for transport. A faster decarbonization of the transport sector will not only improve the country’s climate performance, but will also shield citizens more effectively against the economic consequences of the new Emissions Trading Scheme for buildings and road transport coming in 2027,” said Nikos Mantzaris, energy policy analyst and co-founder of The Green Tank.
You can read the full analysis here.
