The monthly emissions from each power plant in Greece are estimated based on the latest available electricity production data (September 2024 for the interconnected network and July 2024 for the non-interconnected islands) and the annual CO2 emissions from ETS (2023), following the methodology and assumptions presented here.
Carbon intensity of electricity production
Carbon intensity[1] is an important indicator of the decarbonization of the power sector. Low carbon intensity means a cleaner electricity production mix, less dependent on polluting fossil fuels.
Carbon intensity has been reducing significantly throughout the last decade. Up until 2019, carbon intensity fluctuated above 500 g CO2/kWh, while in 2023 it reached 315 g CO2/kWh.
Progress continues into 2024, as in the first nine months of the year the average carbon intensity fell further to 268 g CO2/kWh. In September, carbon intensity (277 g CO2/kWh) decreased compared to the previous month, after four months of increasing intensity.
Emissions in 2024 could have been reduced even further if RES curtailments had been avoided and the corresponding quantity of energy was allocated to limit the production of gas plants. In total in the first nine months of 2024, 673 GWh of clean energy were curtailed. Taking into account the carbon intensity of these months, 169 thousand tons of carbon dioxide could have been avoided, an amount approximately equal to the emissions of the oil plant on the island of Kos during that period.
Emissions per fuel
In September 2024, 1.17 million tons of CO2 were emitted for electricity production, while emissions from lignite-fired plants were the second lowest of the year on a monthly basis (0.2 million tons), after May (0.08 million tons). This was due to very low production from lignite, as September was the month with the most hours ever with no lignite plant in operation (463 hours without lignite).
In total, in the first nine months of 2024 an estimated 11.26 million tons of CO2 were emitted for electricity production. Emissions from fossil gas plants exceeded 50% of the country’s total (5.88 million tons or 52.2%) as well as those from lignite plants (3.06 million tons or 27.2). The share of oil plants was much smaller (2.32 million tons or 20.6%).
Emissions from the electricity production sector decreased only by 0.27 million tons (or -2.3%) in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. This is mainly due to the increase in the use of fossil gas which outweighed the decrease in emissions from the reduction of lignite. The emissions from fossil gas plants increased by +1.17 million tons or +24.8%, due to a corresponding 29.5% increase in electricity production from gas in the first nine months of 2024. In contrast, emissions from lignite plants decreased (-1.5 million tons or -32.9%) because of a 29.3% reduction in electricity production from lignite plants. Finally, emissions from oil plants increased slightly compared to the first nine months of 2023 (+0.07 million tons or +3.1%).
Compared to the five-year average, total emissions in the first nine months of 2024 decreased by 4.11 million tons (-26.8%). The decrease came from two out of three fuels, the largest being from lignite (-4.37 million tons or -58.8%). It is noteworthy that at the beginning of the five-year period (2019), emissions from lignite plants (12.87 million tons) were more than four times higher compared to the first nine months of 2024. Oil also decreased (-0.06 million tons or -5.6%), while fossil gas recorded an increase (+0.32 million tons or +5.7%).
Emissions per thermal power plant
In terms of the distribution of emissions among power plants, the lignite power plant of Agios Dimitrios retained 1st place in the first nine months of 2024, emitting 1.82 million tons of CO2 (59.4% of the total lignite emissions), with a decreased production compared to previous years. In the first five months of 2024, three of its five units (III-V) operated, those covering the district heating of the city of Kozani, in June only unit III operated with low production (19.3 GWh), in July and August all five units of the plant operated, while in September the last unit (V) did not operate.
Ptolemaida 5 was second with 1.02 million tons, although in September it had the second lowest monthly production of the year (79.7 GWh), after March (54.5 GWh). The third lignite power plant, Meliti, was in 17th place with 0.21 million tons, while the fourth lignite plant still available, Megalopoli IV, which is still under operation, was ranked 29th as it only operated minimally in June 2024 (9.14 GWh).
Third overall was the fossil gas plant Agios Nikolaos II (0.87 million tons). Megalopoli V followed in the 4th place of the overall top polluters (0.77 million tons), while Lavrio IV-V fell to the 5th place (0.73 million tons). Fossil gas-fired plants in total accounted for 65.7% of the emissions from thermal plants in Greece’s interconnected grid (lignite and fossil gas together).
In the non-interconnected islands, the three oil stations in Crete (Aterinolakkos, Linoperamata and Chania) were the top polluters with emissions of 0.54, 0.42 and 0.22 million tons respectively in the first nine months of 2024. Cumulatively, the top three polluting oil stations represent 50.7% of the total emissions on the non-interconnected islands. They are 6th, 13th and 15th respectively in the general ranking of all thermal power plants in the country in terms of emissions.
Emissions of PPC ‘s thermal power plants
PPC seems to remain committed to drastically reducing its carbon footprint. Specifically, in its new strategic business plan for the 2024 – 2026 period, presented in January 2024 at the Capital Markets Day in London, it committed to reducing emissions from its thermal plants to 5.9 million tons in 2026, a reduction of 75% compared to 2019 levels.
In the first nine months of the year, PPC’s thermal plants emitted 7.52 million tons, a 13.3% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. This reduction is almost six times the corresponding percentage reduction recorded in the emissions of all thermal plants in the country (-2.3%). Therefore, PPC’s remaining carbon budget[2] for the remaining three months of 2024 is 2.09 million tons, that is 21.7% of the total coal budget for the year. Based on the nine-month climate performance, PPC is marginally off track to meet the target[3].
You can see the evolution of the electricity sector emissions since 2013, as well as read the analyses from previous months, here.
[1] Carbon intensity is defined as the ratio of emissions from the three fuels (lignite, gas and oil, including CHP) to the country’s total electricity production from the interconnected grid and the non-interconnected islands.
[2] Assuming that the reduction in emissions from 11.47 million tons in 2023 to 5.9 million tons in 2026 is linear, the available budget for 2024 is estimated at 9.61 million tons.
[3] These emissions, as well as the electricity production of non-interconnected islands for the months of 2024 which have not yet been published, are estimated based on data from previous years.
